Things Poll Apart

An excellent read about the breakdown of the polls from The Weekly Standard. Of the many polling institutions, only one group was accurate: The Trafalgar Group headed by Robert Cahaly. From the article:

Cahaly reasoned that since the media was demonizing and caricaturing Trump supporters, and Hillary Clinton was campaigning against them as a “basket of deplorables,” Trump supporters would be reluctant to admit their support to strangers. (The phenomenon of people not willing to report their support is well known in polling—when white voters don’t want to say they’re voting against a black candidate for fear of being judged, it’s called “the Bradley effect,” for L.A. mayor Tom Bradley, who lost California’s 1982 governor’s race despite consistently leading in the polls. A similar phenomenon in the U.K. is known as the “shy Tory” effect.)

To counter this perceived unwillingness to register support, Trafalgar started asking a new question. “When you ask them who their neighbor is voting for, they’re more comfortable,” he says. It appears to have worked pretty well this year.

Where do pollsters go from here? Even superstar Nate Silver, who is getting a lot of flack his misses in this election, has some work to do to correct mistakes.